Research

Dissertation

“LGBT People’s Sense of Linked Fate: Belonging or Utility?”

Do LGBT people have a sense of linked fate? If so, is it experienced across subgroups and what are the mechanisms for LGBT people’s sense of linked fate? Linked fate is the sense that what happens to one’s group will affect one directly. My dissertation uses a combination of quantitative, qualitative, and mixed-methods approaches to find evidence of LGBT people’s sense of linked fate, conceptualize a unique theoretical framework, and develop a novel measurement for LGBT people’s sense of linked fate. I argue that LGBT people’s sense of linked fate is a function of both belonging and utility. The LGBT community’s unique historic and contemporary experiences of social, political, and cultural stigmatization and exclusion, and LGBT people’s sense of belonging within the LGBT community.

Published Manuscripts

Hales, K., & Riggle, E. D. (2025). One LGBT community or many? Linked fate in LGBT people. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 25(2), e70024.

While the LGBT community is often referred to as a monolith, research suggests that it may be separate subgroups under one umbrella. Linked fate is the sense that what happens to one member of a group will affect all other group members with consequences for political behaviors. While research on racial identity groups suggests that members often feel a sense of linked fate with other group members, but this research has not been generalized or explored in the LGBT community. This study empirically explores whether there is a sense of linked fate in the LGBT community using a mixed-methods approach to analyze data from an online survey. We also explore whether a sense of linked fate is associated with group-based policy preferences. Findings suggest that LGBT people do feel a sense of linked fate with other LGBT people despite differences that exist within the subgroups. The qualitative results suggests that LGBT people’s sense of linked fate is rooted in both societal ostracization and a sense of belonging in the LGBT community. This study also suggests that a sense of linked fate through LGBT identity may influence group-based policy preferences. These results argue for the importance of studying the LGBT community as an identity group in political behavior while acknowledging distinctions between subgroups

Hales, K. Forthcoming. “A Qualitative Approach to Understanding LGBT People’s Sense of Linked Fate.”

How do LGBT people experience, conceptualize, and understand linked fate? The literature has primarily focused, both methodologically and theoretically, on Black Americans’ sense of linked fate, leaving a gap in our understanding of LGBT people’s sense of linked fate. Using reflexive phenomenological thematic analysis on data collected in 2023 from semi-structured interviews with 15 self-identifying LGBT people, three broad themes were identified: Contextualization, Belonging, and Utility. The results suggest that LGBT people’s sense of linked fate is rooted in their unique, shared experiences of social, political, and cultural stigmatization and exclusion, and their sense of belonging in the LGBT community. The results offer insights into how LGBT people’s political behavior may be driven by communal perspectives and feelings, and the role of LGBT people’s historic and contemporary experiences of ostracism shape LGBT people’s social cognition and behaviors. Findings have implications for LGBT people’s political activism and ability to collectively respond to social and political attacks on LGBT people’s rights. 

Manuscripts under review

Hales, K & Riggle, E. Under review. “Scale Development and Validation of the LGBTQ Linked Fate (LGBTQ-LF) Scale.”

Linked fate, the perception that one’s own life chances are tied to the outcomes of one’s group, has been central to research on political behavior and group consciousness, but its application beyond race has raised theoretical and methodological concerns. Despite growing evidence of political cohesion among lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) people, existing research relies almost exclusively on Dawsons’s (1994) measure that may not capture group-specific experiences or multidimensional structure. This study develops and validates a multi-dimensional measure of LGBTQ people’s sense of linked fate. Drawing on prior qualitative research, we develop an item pool and use exploratory factor analysis in a sample of LGBTQ adults (n = 435) to identify two dimensions of LGBTQ people’s linked fate: Belonging and Utility. We confirm this structure in an independent sample (n = 289) using confirmatory factor analysis and validate the scale using tests of measurement invariance, discriminant validity, and incremental validity. The resulting 12-item LGBTQ Linked Fate Scale exhibits strong reliability and validity. Structural equation models suggest the two dimensions have distinct patterns of predictive validity: Belonging is more strongly associated with intra-group affect, whereas Utility predicts willingness to engage in collective action and beliefs about discrimination. These findings clarity the psychological structure of LGBTQ people’s linked fate and provide a theoretically grounded tool for research on LGBTQ people’s political identity and behavior.

Riggle, E, Clements, Z, Hales, K, & Galup, P. Under Review. “Contextualizing personal pronoun use in the LGBTQ community: They, She, He.”

The present study explores personal pronoun use by LGBTQ people. There has been a significant rise in discourse related to the use of pronouns, specifically when different from pronouns assigned at birth, including legislation mandating acceptable pronoun use in K-12 schools. However, there is little empirical exploration of pronoun use and the contextual factors (including when and around whom) influencing pronoun usage. LGBTQ+ participants (N = 301) were recruited to complete an online survey answering questions related to their pronoun fit, usage, and comfort and feelings of safety. Results suggest for most participants their pronouns fit most of the time, especially for those who use binary (i.e., exclusively she/her or he/him) pronouns. Those who use the pronouns they were assigned at birth (Assigned He/She) felt fewer negative emotions and more happiness compared to those who use different pronouns than assigned at birth (i.e., affirmed pronouns; Affirmed She/He) or use the pronoun They exclusively or in combination with She and/or He (They+). Participants using They+ pronouns were least likely to have their correct pronouns used and least comfortable sharing their pronouns or correcting others using the wrong pronouns. Those who used Affirmed She/He pronouns were more likely to be hypervigilant around people perceived as conservative or religious. This study provides a nuanced understanding of the contextual factors impacting pronoun use. Implications include suggestions for reducing distress, particularly for individuals who use pronouns not assigned at birth, and clinical recommendations regarding the importance of amplifying authentic expression through pronoun usage.

Masterson, J, Wu, J, and Hales, K. Under review. “The Past and Future: Partisanship and Economic Evaluations of Presidential Elections.”

Evaluating incumbent performance at the polls is crucial for democratic accountability, with retrospective and prospective voting theories long debated in the literature. This paper argues that voters are more likely to use retrospective cues when choosing a candidate if there is a clear incumbent, while prospective cues become more influential when no clear incumbent is running, particularly after an 8-year presidential term. The study examines U.S. presidential elections from 2004 to 2016 using ANES datasets, demonstrating that voters consistently apply retrospective voting. However, retrospective cues have a significantly greater impact on voting decisions when an incumbent is seeking reelection. Our findings indicate that voters attribute successes and failures directly to the incumbent, making past performance a stronger determinant of vote choice in elections with a clear incumbent. This analysis underscores the importance of incumbent performance in shaping electoral outcomes and provides insights into voter behavior under varying electoral circumstances.

Working Papers

Hales, K. “Is it me or them? Identity processes as a dual-pathway model of LGBTQ people’s sense of linked fate.”

Hales, K. “Through thick and thin: How LGBTQ people’s sense of linked fate is differentially activated by negative and positive stimuli.”

Cake, H & Hales, K. “When is it Popular to be an Outsider? Populist Rhetoric and LGBTQ Legislation in State Legislatures.”

Hales, K. ”Modeling Small-Area Estimates of White Identity through Bayesian Multilevel Modeling with Variational Approximation.”